Thursday, September 07, 2006

The housing bubble. The technology bubble. They are being equated.

Realize that there basically can't be a housing bubble. Their can be a land bubble. People can pay too much for the land that their houses sit on. Houses are made of sweat and lots of heavy stuff however, and tend to cost the going rate for lumber, concrete, shingles, and sheetrock, plus the very low going rate for labor, plus 12% for the builder, or even less. And anyone can build one. I think I've proved that. There can't be a rapid escalation of prices as long as land is available in the same location. Location, location, location. Now when there's no more open land and people want to live in a certain area, prices can escalate to ridiculous rates. But as long as people want to be in that location, that escalation of prices can be supported. It's about desire in those areas. Something makes it worth the money to be there. The view, the weather, the neighborhood, the security. Whatever drives the price will keep it high unless the view, weather, neighborhood, or security changes.

Now realestate investors who buy property to "flip" it, day traders in real estate, can get caught short. They buy on neg amoritization loans and must flip for a higher price or they lose money. These guys can get hammered if they guess wrong on the demand in an area. But the average Joe bought his house to live in. He and the wife have a loan they can afford to pay and the vississitudes of the market, while unnerving, do not affect them in the long run. The housing bubble burst is not going to be the technology bubble bursting. The media just loves to grab on to something (Water GATE for example) and liken everything else to it. (Plame GATE.)

While prices that have been inflated by speculators may fall for a time, the lumber, concrete, etc., will make certain that housing does not collapse. What's more, in most areas of the country, the market is still creeping upward. And with inflation, every day you own a house it gets cheaper to pay for. Only if wages fall will the middle class have a housing crisis. The rich are trying to arrange that for us, but we are haning tough.

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